This blog will show articles by me and, probably more frequently, articles I link to concerned with the environment and anything related that interests me. I will be linking to sites that acknowledge the reality of resource depletion and the impossibility of indefinite exponential growth on a finite planet.
Sunday 13 March 2011
Proof of Impossibility of Indefinte Economic Growth
The spreadsheet looks at a case where non-renewable resource consumption began in 1800 and started at 1kg per capita. It assumes a 2% annual growth in resource consumption. Assuming the entire top 10 km from the surface could be used and that all of it is non-renewable (if some is renewable there is less available that is non-renewable), it shows that this would be entirely used out in 1,365 years.
Not much to worry about you might think as this is the year 3165, but per capita consumption was almost certainly a lot higher than 1kg/person/year and there would have been some pre-existing consumption. Also, extracting the entire top 10km of the Earth's surface is hardly realistic. Therefore the date of resource depletion will certainly be earlier, how much earlier I wouldn't like to venture but we are hitting the limits of resource extraction rates at present in many commodities, not least oil
Play around with if you want if you can with Google Docs. Cells in yellow are for editing and those in blue are the results.
Exactly. And that is why we need to move on from a world system where % of economic growth is the standard against which a country is measured. Oh course I haven't quite figured out what the best alternative is yet...
The spreadsheet looks at a case where non-renewable resource consumption began in 1800 and started at 1kg per capita. It assumes a 2% annual growth in resource consumption. Assuming the entire top 10 km from the surface could be used and that all of it is non-renewable (if some is renewable there is less available that is non-renewable), it shows that this would be entirely used out in 1,365 years.
ReplyDeleteNot much to worry about you might think as this is the year 3165, but per capita consumption was almost certainly a lot higher than 1kg/person/year and there would have been some pre-existing consumption. Also, extracting the entire top 10km of the Earth's surface is hardly realistic. Therefore the date of resource depletion will certainly be earlier, how much earlier I wouldn't like to venture but we are hitting the limits of resource extraction rates at present in many commodities, not least oil
Play around with if you want if you can with Google Docs. Cells in yellow are for editing and those in blue are the results.
Exactly. And that is why we need to move on from a world system where % of economic growth is the standard against which a country is measured. Oh course I haven't quite figured out what the best alternative is yet...
ReplyDelete